Upside case
Bull case
$13317+121.5%
NVR would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
10 bullish · 4 bearish · 24 covering NVR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
10
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$7465
+24.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$4617 – $13317
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.7B
NVR price targets
Three scenarios for where NVR stock could go
Current
~$6013
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $6013
Bear
$4617
Base
$7469
Bull
$13317
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$7469+24.2%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$4617-23.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push NVR down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NVR, Inc.
NVR · NYSEConsumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionDecember year-end
NVR is a homebuilder that constructs and sells single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums primarily under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands. It generates revenue from home sales—which account for the vast majority of its income—and mortgage banking services that facilitate customer financing. The company's key advantage is its asset-light operating model—it doesn't own land inventory outright but instead uses options contracts, reducing capital requirements and market risk.
Market Cap
$16.7B
Revenue TTM
$10.2B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
13.2%
NVR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$108.54/$106.20
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$112.33/$109.36
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.22/$1.06
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.68/$0.78
Revenue
$1.9B/$2.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $108.54/$106.20 | +2.2% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +4.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $112.33/$109.36 | +2.7% | $2.5B/$2.6B | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.22/$1.06 | +14.8% | $2.7B/$2.5B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.68/$0.78 | -13.4% | $1.9B/$2.0B | -8.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.1B
-1.0% YoY
FY2
$10.2B
+1.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$496.87
+11.0% YoY
FY2
$542.27
+9.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 10.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NVR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NVR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Home Building Segment
97.8%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Home Building Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Home Building Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 97.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.9% YoY.
Home Building Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
NVR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $6125 — implies -0.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NVR
13.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
45% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
NVR
13.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
29% discount
vs NVR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.8x
vs
5Y Average
15.2x
9% discount
Forward PE
16.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-13%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-45%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
-29%
5Y Avg
15.2x
-9%
PEG Ratio
1.01x
S&P 500
1.72x
-41%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
+11%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-41%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
-21%
5Y Avg
11.6x
-23%
Price/FCF
15.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
-28%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+4%
5Y Avg
16.9x
-10%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-48%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+126%
5Y Avg
2.3x
-29%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NVR | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg NVR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.7x | 19.1x-13% | 15.1x+10% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.8x | 25.1x-45% | 19.3x-29% | 15.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.01x | 1.72x-41% | 0.91x+11% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9x | 15.2x-41% | 11.3x-21% | 11.6x-23% |
| Price/FCF | 15.2x | 21.1x-28% | 14.6x | 16.9x |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-48% | 0.7x+126% | 2.3x-29% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.23% | — |
NVR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNVR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NVR generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 10.8% margin — 43.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 11.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-3.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
22.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$447.65
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
43.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
22.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$760M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
34.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
11.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
11.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
3M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNVR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Demand Erosion and Affordability Issues
High interest rates and home prices have significantly reduced the pool of qualified buyers, leading to a 16% decrease in new orders in Q3 2025 and a cancellation rate increase to 19.4%. This trend poses a serious risk to NVR's revenue pipeline.
High Risk
Margin Compression
In Q3 2025, NVR's homebuilding gross margin dropped to 21.0% due to higher lot costs and pricing pressures. This margin compression could severely impact profitability and cash flows.
High Risk
Concentrated Revenue Model
NVR's revenue is almost entirely dependent on its homebuilding segment, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in this market. Any downturn in home sales could significantly affect overall financial performance.
Medium
Economic Downturns
A general economic slowdown can adversely affect demand for new homes, which in turn impacts sales, profitability, and cash flows. This risk is heightened in uncertain economic climates.
Medium
Interest Rate Volatility
Fluctuations in interest rates directly impact mortgage affordability for customers, which can affect NVR's mortgage banking revenue and overall profitability. This volatility poses a risk to financial stability.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Shortages of building materials or labor, or increases in their costs, can adversely impact NVR's operations. Such disruptions can delay projects and increase expenses.
Lower
Government Regulations
Changes in zoning, environmental laws, and mortgage industry regulations can increase costs or delay projects for NVR. While these risks are manageable, they can still pose challenges to operational efficiency.
Lower
Cybersecurity Risks
Data breaches and cybersecurity incidents could lead to financial liabilities and reputational damage for NVR. While the likelihood may be lower, the potential impact remains significant.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NVR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Financial Strength and Liquidity
NVR maintains a robust balance sheet with significant cash reserves of around $2.88 billion and minimal debt, resulting in a strong net cash position. This financial resilience provides a long runway for operations and debt obligations, even in challenging economic conditions.
Operational Efficiency and Profitability
The company is recognized for its efficient business model, consistently delivering high returns on equity (ROE) and return on invested capital (ROIC). This strong profitability, even with recent margin pressures, suggests an ability to generate excess returns relative to its cost of capital.
Disciplined Capital Allocation
NVR has a history of returning excess cash to shareholders through aggressive share repurchases, which have reduced the number of outstanding shares and enhanced earnings per share (EPS). The company's board has also authorized significant stock buyback programs, indicating a belief that the stock is undervalued.
Asset-Light Model and Strategic Focus
NVR employs an asset-light model, focusing on finished lots or limited land holdings, which reduces capital tied up in undeveloped land and lowers inventory risk during downturns. Its concentration on the East Coast and tiered branding strategy are also seen as differentiators.
Undervaluation and Growth Potential
Despite positive industry tailwinds, NVR is considered by some to be trading at attractive valuations. Analysts suggest that the current stock price may imply a lower future free cash flow growth rate than the company is capable of achieving.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NVR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$6013.26
52W Range Position
3%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$5930.00
+1.4% from the low
52-Week High
$8618.28
-30.2% from the high
1 Month
-10.62%
3 Month
-25.25%
YTD
-17.4%
1 Year
-15.0%
3Y CAGR
+0.9%
5Y CAGR
+3.2%
10Y CAGR
+13.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NVR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.7x
vs 11.8x median
+41% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.0%
vs -0.3% median
-213% below peer median
Net Margin
13.2%
vs 9.5% median
+38% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVR NVR NVR, Inc. | $16.7B | 16.7x | -1.0% | 13.2% | Buy | +24.1% |
DHI DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | $42.4B | 13.8x | -0.3% | 9.5% | Hold | +11.9% |
LEN LEN Lennar Corporation | $18.6B | 14.0x | -1.2% | 6.1% | Buy | +18.5% |
PHM PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | $22.7B | 11.8x | -0.5% | 12.1% | Hold | +19.7% |
TOL TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | $13.0B | 10.8x | +0.5% | 12.3% | Hold | +21.5% |
MHO MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $3.3B | 9.8x | +0.8% | 8.2% | Hold | +28.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NVR Dividend and Capital Return
NVR returns 11.0% annually — null% through dividends and 11.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
11.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
11.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
304.9K
Approx. Share Reduction
11.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3M
At 11.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $0.17 | -80.3% |
| 1989 | $0.85 | +152.5% |
| 1988 | $0.34 | +43.2% |
| 1987 | $0.23 | — |
FAQ
7 questionsNVR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NVR, Inc. (NVR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NVR, Inc. (NVR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $7465, implying +24.1% from the current price of $6013. The bear case scenario is $4617 and the bull case is $13317.
02What is the NVR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NVR is $7465 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $8096 (+34.6% from today), and the low-end target is $6600 (+9.8%). The base case model target is $7469.
03Is NVR, Inc. (NVR) stock overvalued in 2026?
NVR trades at 16.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for NVR, Inc. (NVR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NVR in 2026 are: (1) Demand Erosion and Affordability Issues — High interest rates and home prices have significantly reduced the pool of qualified buyers, leading to a 16% decrease in new orders in Q3 2025 and a cancellation rate increase to 19. (2) Margin Compression — In Q3 2025, NVR's homebuilding gross margin dropped to 21. (3) Concentrated Revenue Model — NVR's revenue is almost entirely dependent on its homebuilding segment, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in this market. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NVR, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NVR will report consensus revenue of $10.1B (-1.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $496.87 (+11.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.2B in revenue.
06When does NVR, Inc. (NVR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NVR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does NVR, Inc. generate?
NVR, Inc. (NVR) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.8%. NVR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.8B TTM).