Upside case
Bull case
$11164+72.0%
NVR would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
10 bullish · 4 bearish · 24 covering NVR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
10
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$7465
+15.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$5338 – $11164
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.0B
NVR price targets
Three scenarios for where NVR stock could go
Current
~$6491
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $6491
Bear
$5338
Base
$8473
Bull
$11164
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$8473+30.5%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$5338-17.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push NVR down roughly 18% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NVR, Inc.
NVR · NYSEConsumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionDecember year-end
NVR is a homebuilder that constructs and sells single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums primarily under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands. It generates revenue from home sales—which account for the vast majority of its income—and mortgage banking services that facilitate customer financing. The company's key advantage is its asset-light operating model—it doesn't own land inventory outright but instead uses options contracts, reducing capital requirements and market risk.
Market Cap
$18.0B
Revenue TTM
$10.2B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
13.2%
NVR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$108.54/$106.20
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$112.33/$109.36
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.22/$1.06
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.68/$0.78
Revenue
$1.9B/$2.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $108.54/$106.20 | +2.2% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +4.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $112.33/$109.36 | +2.7% | $2.5B/$2.6B | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.22/$1.06 | +14.8% | $2.7B/$2.5B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.68/$0.78 | -13.4% | $1.9B/$2.0B | -8.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.4B
+2.5% YoY
FY2
$10.5B
+0.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$523.15
+16.9% YoY
FY2
$580.13
+10.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 10.8%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$91.41
Expected Revenue
$2.4B
NVR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NVR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Home Building Segment
97.8%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Home Building Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Home Building Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 97.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.9% YoY.
Home Building Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
NVR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $5443 — implies -16.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
16.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NVR
14.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
39% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
NVR
14.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
30% discount
vs NVR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.9x
vs
5Y Average
15.2x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
18.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-4%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-39%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-30%
5Y Avg
15.2x
-2%
PEG Ratio
1.09x
S&P 500
1.66x
-34%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+18%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-37%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-21%
5Y Avg
11.6x
-17%
Price/FCF
16.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-21%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+6%
5Y Avg
16.9x
-2%
Price/Sales
1.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-44%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+150%
5Y Avg
2.3x
-23%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NVR | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg NVR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.0x | 18.8x | 16.3x+10% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.9x | 24.4x-39% | 21.2x-30% | 15.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.09x | 1.66x-34% | 0.92x+18% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6x | 15.2x-37% | 12.2x-21% | 11.6x-17% |
| Price/FCF | 16.4x | 20.7x-21% | 15.6x | 16.9x |
| Price/Sales | 1.7x | 3.1x-44% | 0.7x+150% | 2.3x-23% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
NVR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNVR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NVR generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 10.8% margin — 43.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 10.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-3.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
22.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$447.65
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
43.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
22.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$760M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
34.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
10.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
3M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNVR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Decline
Q1 2026 revenue dropped 21.7 percent, missing estimates by 7.8 percent, leading to an 11.6 percent stock decline post-earnings.
High Risk
Earnings Miss
Recent earnings report missed estimates, contributing to significant stock price volatility.
Medium
Sector Cyclicality
Operating in the cyclical Residential Construction sector exposes NVR to economic downturns and housing market fluctuations.
Medium
Mortgage Banking Risks
The mortgage banking segment is sensitive to interest rate changes and credit market conditions.
Lower
Regulatory Risks
Potential regulatory changes in the homebuilding and mortgage sectors could impact operations.
Lower
Competitive Pressures
Intense competition in the homebuilding industry may pressure margins and market share.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NVR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Homebuilding segment strength
NVR operates a robust homebuilding business under well-known brands like Ryan Homes and NVHomes, driving revenue growth.
Mortgage banking synergy
The mortgage banking segment complements homebuilding, providing integrated financial services and enhancing customer value.
Revenue growth sustainability
Analysts highlight NVR's potential for sustained revenue growth, supported by market demand and operational efficiency.
Margin expansion potential
Professional analysts identify opportunities for margin expansion through cost management and pricing strategies.
Strong capital allocation
NVR's disciplined capital allocation strategy is seen as a key driver of long-term shareholder value.
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish investment theses highlight NVR's strong market position and growth prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NVR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$6490.93
52W Range Position
32%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$5501.01
+18.0% from the low
52-Week High
$8618.28
-24.7% from the high
1 Month
+13.38%
3 Month
+0.20%
YTD
-10.8%
1 Year
-7.0%
3Y CAGR
+2.8%
5Y CAGR
+6.3%
10Y CAGR
+14.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NVR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.0x
vs 12.7x median
+42% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.5%
vs +3.7% median
-31% below peer median
Net Margin
13.2%
vs 9.5% median
+38% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVR NVR NVR, Inc. | $18.0B | 18.0x | +2.5% | 13.2% | Buy | +15.0% |
DHI DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | $45.7B | 14.9x | +3.9% | 9.5% | Hold | +3.8% |
LEN LEN Lennar Corporation | $22.3B | 15.8x | +3.7% | 5.4% | Buy | -0.6% |
PHM PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | $24.4B | 12.7x | +2.2% | 12.1% | Hold | +13.8% |
TOL TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | $14.7B | 12.2x | +3.7% | 11.7% | Hold | +11.7% |
MHO MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $3.8B | 11.3x | +3.0% | 8.2% | Hold | +10.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NVR Dividend and Capital Return
NVR returns 10.2% annually — null% through dividends and 10.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
10.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
10.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.6%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
282.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
10.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3M
At 10.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $0.17 | -80.3% |
| 1989 | $0.85 | +152.5% |
| 1988 | $0.34 | +43.2% |
| 1987 | $0.23 | — |
FAQ
7 questionsNVR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NVR, Inc. (NVR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NVR, Inc. (NVR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $7465, implying +15.0% from the current price of $6491. The bear case scenario is $5338 and the bull case is $11164.
02What is the NVR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NVR is $7465 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $8096 (+24.7% from today), and the low-end target is $6600 (+1.7%). The base case model target is $8473.
03Is NVR, Inc. (NVR) stock overvalued in 2026?
NVR trades at 18.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for NVR, Inc. (NVR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NVR in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Decline — Q1 2026 revenue dropped 21. (2) Earnings Miss — Recent earnings report missed estimates, contributing to significant stock price volatility. (3) Sector Cyclicality — Operating in the cyclical Residential Construction sector exposes NVR to economic downturns and housing market fluctuations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NVR, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NVR will report consensus revenue of $10.4B (+2.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $523.15 (+16.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.5B in revenue.
06When does NVR, Inc. (NVR) report its next earnings?
NVR, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $91.41 and revenue of $2.4B. Over recent quarters, NVR has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does NVR, Inc. generate?
NVR, Inc. (NVR) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.8%. NVR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.8B TTM).