MODEL VERDICT
ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $55.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $66.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $64.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $62.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $53.22 | Below threshold | +17.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $72.24 | +29.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $68.19 | +22.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $69.02 | +24.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $53.10 | -4.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $108.72 | +95.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $54.86 | -1.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $99.90 | +79.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $111.29 | +99.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $103.97 | +86.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $72.27 | +29.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $54.26 | -2.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $71.33 | +28.1% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $52 | $58 | $63 | $68 | $73 |
| Conservative (23%) | $57 | $62 | $68 | $74 | $79 |
| Base Case (35.9%) | $62 | $69 | $75 | $81 | $87 |
| Bull Case (49%) | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 | $95 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.56 | 18.64 | 9.87 | 90.27 | 28.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.09 | 17.56 | 4.58 | 83.80 | 27.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.55 | 16.82 | 4.86 | 75.36 | 24.63 |
| P/FCF | 32.42 | 40.32 | 14.29 | 42.65 | 15.74 |
| P/FFO | 30.55 | 17.94 | 8.80 | 86.76 | 27.88 |
| P/TBV | 3.05 | 2.32 | 0.63 | 8.69 | 2.78 |
| P/AFFO | 40.92 | 39.65 | 19.03 | 60.00 | 16.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.97 | 2.29 | 0.62 | 8.27 | 2.64 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.13 | 2.61 | 1.28 | 10.99 | 3.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACMR's fair value at $71.33 vs the current price of $55.68, implying +28.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $71.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.46 (P10) to $79.06 (P90), with a median of $66.89.
ACMR's current P/E of 36.4x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -19.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
10 analysts cover ACMR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $40.00 — $40.00), implying -28.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ACMR trades at the 3830th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (32.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ACMR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 940.0% to approximately $61. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.