MODEL VERDICT
Enact Holdings, Inc. (ACT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $42.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $43.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $42.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $41.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $41.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $43.29 | +1.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $37.47 | -12.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $41.21 | -3.3% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $24.33 | -42.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $43.29 | +1.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $37.60 | -11.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $12.64 | -70.3% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $40.01 | -6.1% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.62 | -14.0% | 100% | 84 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $27 | $36 | $45 | $53 | $62 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28 | $37 | $46 | $55 | $64 |
| Base Case (4.8%) | $27 | $37 | $46 | $55 | $64 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $28 | $37 | $47 | $56 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.55 | 6.59 | 5.60 | 7.41 | 0.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.07 | 5.13 | 4.39 | 5.64 | 0.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.07 | 5.13 | 4.39 | 5.64 | 0.54 |
| P/FCF | 7.26 | 7.40 | 6.94 | 7.43 | 0.27 |
| P/TBV | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.82 | 1.03 | 0.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.82 | 1.02 | 0.09 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.73 | 3.83 | 3.01 | 4.24 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACT's fair value at $36.62 vs the current price of $42.60, implying -14.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.98 (P10) to $37.04 (P90), with a median of $34.92.
ACT's current P/E of 9.7x compares to the industry median of 9.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -1.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.5x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
8 analysts cover ACT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $45.00 (range: $40.00 — $50.00), implying +5.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ACT trades at the 2670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (6.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ACT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (53.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3300.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.