MODEL VERDICT
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $157.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $149.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $174.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $182.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $175.18 | Below threshold | +1.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $194.62 | +23.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $261.60 | +65.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $242.74 | +54.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $259.45 | +64.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $205.40 | +30.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $157.66 | +0.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $216.30 | +37.2% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $88 | $123 | $159 | $194 | $229 |
| Conservative (10%) | $91 | $128 | $164 | $201 | $237 |
| Base Case (15.0%) | $96 | $134 | $172 | $210 | $249 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $100 | $140 | $180 | $220 | $260 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.49 | 10.56 | 8.13 | 12.10 | 1.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 146.35 | 128.96 | 114.17 | 223.80 | 43.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 146.33 | 128.90 | 114.17 | 223.80 | 43.06 |
| P/FCF | 7.56 | 3.56 | 1.52 | 24.06 | 9.34 |
| P/FFO | 10.03 | 10.65 | 6.86 | 11.97 | 2.30 |
| P/TBV | 1.15 | 1.12 | 0.81 | 1.48 | 0.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.15 | 1.12 | 0.81 | 1.48 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.65 | 1.48 | 1.19 | 3.00 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates AGM's fair value at $216.30 vs the current price of $157.66, implying +37.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $216.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $175.36 (P10) to $251.99 (P90), with a median of $211.59.
AGM's current P/E of 9.5x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -19.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
5 analysts cover AGM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $233.00 (range: $233.00 — $233.00), implying +47.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AGM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5460.0% to approximately $244. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.