MODEL VERDICT
Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $103.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $95.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $95.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $90.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $91.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $294.52 | +183.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $207.35 | +99.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $168.57 | +62.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $178.11 | +71.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $108.59 | +4.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $161.04 | +55.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $10.25 | -90.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $194.60 | +87.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $208.80 | +101.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $143.34 | +38.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $166.58 | +60.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $163.11 | +57.0% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $87 | $97 | $107 | $117 | $127 |
| Conservative (5%) | $89 | $100 | $110 | $120 | $130 |
| Base Case (2.4%) | $87 | $97 | $107 | $117 | $127 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $88 | $98 | $108 | $118 | $128 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.59 | 29.79 | 25.86 | 34.70 | 2.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.69 | 28.35 | 24.15 | 33.48 | 2.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.89 | 16.29 | 12.73 | 18.57 | 2.05 |
| P/FCF | 24.04 | 22.58 | 16.57 | 35.90 | 7.53 |
| P/FFO | 14.83 | 15.47 | 12.12 | 16.75 | 1.85 |
| P/TBV | 10.40 | 9.42 | 6.73 | 15.19 | 3.54 |
| P/AFFO | 23.38 | 22.22 | 15.46 | 33.28 | 5.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.66 | 3.89 | 3.03 | 4.28 | 0.52 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.57 | 4.82 | 3.70 | 5.61 | 0.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AKAM's fair value at $163.11 vs the current price of $103.87, implying +57.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $163.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $134.89 (P10) to $223.92 (P90), with a median of $179.34.
AKAM's current P/E of 31.8x compares to the industry median of 51.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -38.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
52 analysts cover AKAM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $111.18 (range: $76.00 — $120.00), implying +7.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (23), Hold (26), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AKAM trades at the 5590th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (30.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AKAM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3470.0% to approximately $140. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.