MODEL VERDICT
Cloudflare, Inc. (NET)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $217.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $207.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $201.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $190.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $167.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $35.85 | -83.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $2.99 | -98.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $24.49 | -88.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $16.28 | -92.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $25.79 | -88.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $32.40 | -85.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $24.75 | -88.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.20 | -76.5% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 210.83 | 211.80 | 188.15 | 232.54 | 22.21 |
| P/FFO | 1227.00 | 751.46 | 363.26 | 2566.27 | 1175.97 |
| P/TBV | 38.40 | 43.60 | 7.10 | 57.69 | 17.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 32.51 | 35.14 | 7.06 | 50.34 | 14.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 31.93 | 22.02 | 15.13 | 62.57 | 18.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates NET's fair value at $51.20 vs the current price of $217.50, implying -76.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.85 (P10) to $69.30 (P90), with a median of $56.15.
NET's current P/E of -750.0x compares to the industry median of 33.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -2353.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
40 analysts cover NET with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $216.43 (range: $140.00 — $260.00), implying -0.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NET.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.