Air Lease Corporation (AL)
Valuation Overview•Is Air Lease Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 46/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
AL struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (9.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 29.5% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $820.4M | +10.3% | +9.2% | +8.4% | +9.4% | |
| EBITDA | $752.9M | — | +18.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $180.9M | +154.5% | — | — | +15.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.51 | +179.0% | — | +16.2% | +14.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$480.8M | +42.5% | +9.8% | -0.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 38.4% | 41.6% | 39.5% | 42.9% |
| Operating Margin | 29.5% | 33.2% | 31.5% | 35.7% |
| Net Margin | 36.1% | 24.9% | 18.3% | 25.3% |
| FCF Margin | -57.4% | -88.0% | -90.1% | -111.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $1.38 | $2.12 | +53.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.60 | $1.29 | -19.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.33 | $1.40 | +5.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.24 | $1.51 | +21.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.82 | $1.34 | +63.4% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.79 | $1.25 | +58.2% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.56 | $1.23 | -21.2% | ||
| Q2'24 | $1.49 | $1.31 | -12.1% |
Total return is +16.4% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -8.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +1.7% | -7.6% | — |
| 1Y | +16.4% | -8.6% | +1.2% |
| 3YCAGR | +18.0% | -1.5% | +5.8% |
| 5YCAGR | +10.2% | -3.0% | +9.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +9.9% | -3.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Air Lease Corporation (AL) valuation, health, and returns.
Air Lease Corporation is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +309.9% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $266.41)
Air Lease Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $266.41 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $163.58 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $65.00 (implying +0.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Air Lease Corporation displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 46/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -0.2 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.2%.
Air Lease Corporation pays a 1.3% dividend yield, covered by a 9% payout ratio with 13 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Air Lease Corporation's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +10.3% 1Y revenue growth and +179.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +9.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 20 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +0.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Air Lease Corporation include: -9.0% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.18x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.