MODEL VERDICT
Air Lease Corporation (AL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $65.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $65.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $65.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $65.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $65.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $99.85 | +53.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $243.15 | +274.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $198.52 | +205.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $209.64 | +222.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $145.33 | +123.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $244.55 | +276.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $146.69 | +125.7% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $40 | $49 | $69 | $89 | $109 |
| Conservative (11%) | $41 | $51 | $72 | $92 | $113 |
| Base Case (16.2%) | $43 | $54 | $76 | $97 | $119 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $45 | $57 | $79 | $102 | $124 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.23 | 9.73 | 6.91 | 14.48 | 2.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.01 | 28.97 | 24.10 | 42.73 | 7.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.54 | 13.46 | 12.62 | 14.51 | 0.73 |
| P/FFO | 3.75 | 3.84 | 2.78 | 4.94 | 0.70 |
| P/TBV | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.96 | 0.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.96 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.22 | 2.39 | 1.74 | 2.66 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates AL's fair value at $146.69 vs the current price of $65.00, implying +125.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $146.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $115.02 (P10) to $182.21 (P90), with a median of $147.54.
AL's current P/E of 7.0x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -73.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.2x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover AL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $65.00 (range: $65.00 — $65.00), implying +0.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (14), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (21.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1140.0% to approximately $58. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.