MODEL VERDICT
Allot Ltd. (ALLT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $10.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $10.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $10.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $10.84 | Below threshold | -4.9% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $9.86 | Below threshold | +4.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 77 analyst estimates | $5.00 | -51.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 58 industry peers | $1.93 | -81.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 73 industry peers | $1.15 | -88.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 75 industry peers | $0.39 | -96.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 86 industry peers | $7.09 | -30.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 86 industry peers | $7.60 | -25.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 75 industry peers | $1.17 | -88.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.09 | -69.8% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.62 | 3.68 | 1.91 | 13.11 | 3.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.44 | 2.21 | 1.25 | 4.65 | 1.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.09 | 2.51 | 0.67 | 2.94 | 0.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALLT's fair value at $3.09 vs the current price of $10.24, implying -69.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.29 (P10) to $4.52 (P90), with a median of $3.40.
ALLT's current P/E of -68.3x compares to the industry median of 23.6x (50 peers in the group). This represents a -389.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover ALLT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.17 (range: $12.50 — $18.00), implying +48.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALLT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.