Antero Midstream Corporation (AM)
Valuation Overview•Is Antero Midstream Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Moderate quality score of 72/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
AM exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (8.3% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (8.1% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 57.6% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $335.4M | +7.0% | +8.3% | +5.3% | +12.5% | |
| EBITDA | $241.8M | — | +4.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $118.3M | +3.1% | +8.2% | — | +87.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.25 | +3.6% | +8.1% | — | +70.3% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $200.7M | +28.0% | +61.2% | +5.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 64.5% | 63.7% | 63.6% | 61.5% |
| Operating Margin | 57.6% | 54.1% | 54.8% | 30.8% |
| Net Margin | 31.9% | 33.4% | 33.5% | 17.5% |
| FCF Margin | 71.2% | 55.3% | 46.7% | 37.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.26 | $0.25 | -3.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.24 | $0.11 | -54.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.25 | $0.24 | -4.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.25 | $0.26 | +5.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.23 | $0.25 | +9.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.24 | $0.23 | -4.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.23 | $0.21 | -8.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.22 | $0.18 | -18.2% |
Total return is +24.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -0.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +23.5% | +14.2% | — |
| 1Y | +24.7% | -0.3% | +5.0% |
| 3YCAGR | +30.4% | +10.2% | +24.5% |
| 5YCAGR | +21.3% | +8.3% | +45.1% |
| 10YCAGR | -1.3% | -15.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) valuation, health, and returns.
Antero Midstream Corporation is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $21.70)
Antero Midstream Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $21.70 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $16.14 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $21.50 (implying -1.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Antero Midstream Corporation displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 72/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.4 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.4%.
Antero Midstream Corporation pays a 4.2% dividend yield, covered by a 106% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.3% buyback yield.
Antero Midstream Corporation's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +7.0% 1Y revenue growth and +3.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +8.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 17 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 17% of recent quarters with a -3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -1.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Antero Midstream Corporation include: -12.7% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.01x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.