MODEL VERDICT
AMC Networks Inc. (AMCX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $33.35 | +349.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 31 industry peers | $100.03 | +1248.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 25 industry peers | $100.08 | +1248.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 25 industry peers | $118.08 | +1491.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $49.54 | +567.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $42.09 | +467.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 24 industry peers | $110.64 | +1391.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.74 | +651.2% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.48 | 6.61 | 3.83 | 92.18 | 35.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.33 | 7.44 | 6.10 | 26.29 | 7.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.56 | 2.43 | 1.95 | 3.33 | 0.48 |
| P/FCF | 5.84 | 4.98 | 1.51 | 14.83 | 4.31 |
| P/FFO | 1.20 | 1.19 | 0.59 | 2.21 | 0.61 |
| P/AFFO | 1.27 | 1.24 | 0.62 | 2.35 | 0.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.75 | 1.26 | 0.53 | 5.02 | 1.59 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.21 | 1.09 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMCX's fair value at $55.74 vs the current price of $7.42, implying +651.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.99 (P10) to $79.25 (P90), with a median of $58.63.
AMCX's current P/E of -1.6x compares to the industry median of 16.6x (18 peers in the group). This represents a -109.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.5x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
40 analysts cover AMCX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.00 (range: $6.00 — $8.00), implying -5.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (22), Sell (8), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AMCX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.