MODEL VERDICT
AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $30.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $30.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $34.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $33.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $33.09 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $27.92 | -7.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $19.78 | -34.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $26.39 | -12.6% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $123.57 | +309.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $27.82 | -7.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $20.30 | -32.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $28.35 | -6.1% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $32.36 | +7.2% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.82 | +18.7% | 100% | 100 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $20 | $25 | $30 | $35 | $40 |
| Conservative (5%) | $21 | $26 | $31 | $36 | $41 |
| Base Case (-11.2%) | $18 | $22 | $26 | $31 | $35 |
| Bull Case (-15%) | $17 | $21 | $25 | $29 | $34 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.49 | 15.55 | 12.85 | 18.05 | 1.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.96 | 11.84 | 9.82 | 13.94 | 1.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.69 | 11.27 | 9.82 | 13.67 | 1.45 |
| P/FCF | 36.61 | 30.71 | 16.40 | 82.15 | 22.26 |
| P/FFO | 15.22 | 15.31 | 12.69 | 17.64 | 1.88 |
| P/TBV | 3.24 | 3.16 | 2.97 | 3.84 | 0.34 |
| P/AFFO | 15.56 | 15.96 | 12.83 | 18.32 | 2.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.02 | 2.97 | 2.53 | 3.84 | 0.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.12 | 3.28 | 2.31 | 3.45 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMSF's fair value at $35.82 vs the current price of $30.18, implying +18.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.74 (P10) to $39.45 (P90), with a median of $35.69.
AMSF's current P/E of 12.2x compares to the industry median of 11.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +8.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
6 analysts cover AMSF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $44.50 (range: $34.00 — $55.00), implying +47.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMSF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8180.0% to approximately $55. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.