MODEL VERDICT
América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V. (AMX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $26.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $20.30 | Pending | +9.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 29 industry peers | $365.31 | +1304.0% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 44 industry peers | $607.98 | +2236.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 27 industry peers | $231.06 | +788.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 39 analyst estimates | $334.30 | +1184.8% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 40 industry peers | $334.64 | +1186.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 33 industry peers | $366.76 | +1309.5% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 16 industry peers | $576.35 | +2115.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 47 industry peers | $548.09 | +2006.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 29 industry peers | $364.90 | +1302.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $306.49 | +1077.9% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $362 | $417 | $473 | $528 | $584 |
| Conservative (13%) | $378 | $436 | $494 | $552 | $610 |
| Base Case (19.5%) | $401 | $462 | $524 | $586 | $647 |
| Bull Case (26%) | $424 | $489 | $554 | $619 | $684 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.07 | 0.91 | 0.70 | 1.93 | 0.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.94 | 4.74 | 4.20 | 5.87 | 0.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.53 | 2.57 | 2.25 | 2.83 | 0.23 |
| P/FCF | 0.56 | 0.64 | 0.32 | 0.74 | 0.17 |
| P/FFO | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.03 |
| P/TBV | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 1.25 | 0.36 |
| P/AFFO | 0.92 | 1.03 | 0.43 | 1.22 | 0.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| Div Yield | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.70 | 0.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMX's fair value at $306.49 vs the current price of $26.02, implying +1077.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $306.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $216.32 (P10) to $318.96 (P90), with a median of $265.70.
AMX's current P/E of 17.4x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (29 peers in the group). This represents a +22.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.1x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
24 analysts cover AMX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.95 (range: $19.50 — $30.00), implying -8.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (10), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AMX trades at the 6550th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1360.0% to approximately $22. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.