MODEL VERDICT
Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $15.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $15.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $15.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $15.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $13.50 | Below threshold | +14.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 44 industry peers | $41.78 | +172.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 27 industry peers | $17.59 | +14.5% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 39 analyst estimates | $9.57 | -37.7% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 40 industry peers | $32.67 | +112.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 47 industry peers | $59.14 | +285.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.48 | +52.9% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 195.47 | 16.68 | 2.02 | 746.50 | 367.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.50 | 15.96 | 5.38 | 98.93 | 34.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.68 | 5.42 | 3.38 | 7.71 | 1.39 |
| P/FCF | 4.80 | 3.99 | 1.84 | 14.18 | 4.29 |
| P/FFO | 3.71 | 2.59 | 1.09 | 10.05 | 3.08 |
| P/TBV | 3.63 | 2.38 | 1.04 | 8.59 | 2.84 |
| P/AFFO | 6.54 | 5.89 | 1.53 | 14.98 | 4.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.55 | 0.59 | 0.34 | 0.84 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.83 | 0.84 | 0.63 | 1.22 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates VOD's fair value at $23.48 vs the current price of $15.36, implying +52.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.69 (P10) to $29.35 (P90), with a median of $24.84.
VOD's current P/E of -8.1x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (29 peers in the group). This represents a -155.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 195.5x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover VOD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.58 (range: $11.58 — $11.58), implying -24.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (7), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VOD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.