MODEL VERDICT
T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $196.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $189.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $197.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $190.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $195.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $91.80 | -53.2% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $87.13 | -55.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $84.63 | -56.8% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $81.11 | -58.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $77.10 | -60.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $81.81 | -58.3% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $119.78 | -38.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $74.66 | -61.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $76.11 | -61.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $167.85 | -14.4% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $174 | $196 | $217 | $239 | $261 |
| Conservative (19%) | $186 | $209 | $232 | $255 | $278 |
| Base Case (29.7%) | $202 | $227 | $252 | $277 | $303 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $218 | $245 | $272 | $300 | $327 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.19 | 23.14 | 19.51 | 67.96 | 19.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.53 | 21.01 | 18.48 | 43.48 | 11.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.34 | 11.12 | 8.80 | 14.02 | 1.61 |
| P/FCF | 24.33 | 24.84 | 22.20 | 25.94 | 1.92 |
| P/FFO | 9.03 | 9.11 | 6.71 | 10.82 | 1.51 |
| P/AFFO | 24.81 | 24.84 | 16.80 | 33.32 | 7.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.92 | 2.52 | 2.11 | 4.19 | 0.81 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.29 | 2.28 | 1.50 | 3.18 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates TMUS's fair value at $167.85 vs the current price of $196.06, implying -14.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $167.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $127.06 (P10) to $187.38 (P90), with a median of $157.54.
TMUS's current P/E of 20.2x compares to the industry median of 9.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +113.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
54 analysts cover TMUS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $254.08 (range: $220.00 — $310.00), implying +29.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (45), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TMUS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2360.0% to approximately $242. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.