MODEL VERDICT
T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $217.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $215.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $219.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $199.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $200.56 | Below threshold | -1.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 29 industry peers | $137.63 | -36.6% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 44 industry peers | $106.41 | -51.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 27 industry peers | $81.81 | -62.3% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 39 analyst estimates | $106.82 | -50.8% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 40 industry peers | $76.65 | -64.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 33 industry peers | $61.07 | -71.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 16 industry peers | $331.02 | +52.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 47 industry peers | $108.43 | -50.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 29 industry peers | $137.47 | -36.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $176.22 | -18.8% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $196 | $217 | $239 | $261 | $283 |
| Conservative (19%) | $209 | $232 | $255 | $278 | $301 |
| Base Case (29.7%) | $227 | $252 | $277 | $303 | $328 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $245 | $272 | $300 | $327 | $354 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.19 | 23.14 | 19.51 | 67.96 | 19.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.21 | 29.01 | 18.91 | 43.48 | 11.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.34 | 11.12 | 8.80 | 14.02 | 1.61 |
| P/FCF | 24.33 | 24.84 | 22.20 | 25.94 | 1.92 |
| P/FFO | 9.03 | 9.11 | 6.71 | 10.82 | 1.51 |
| P/AFFO | 24.81 | 24.84 | 16.80 | 33.32 | 7.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.92 | 2.52 | 2.11 | 4.19 | 0.81 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.29 | 2.28 | 1.50 | 3.18 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates TMUS's fair value at $176.22 vs the current price of $217.09, implying -18.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $176.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $142.88 (P10) to $207.55 (P90), with a median of $174.65.
TMUS's current P/E of 22.3x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (29 peers in the group). This represents a +57.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
53 analysts cover TMUS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $257.42 (range: $235.00 — $310.00), implying +18.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (42), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.4% is 4.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (8.0%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$227. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TMUS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 450.0% to approximately $227. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.