MODEL VERDICT
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $50.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $49.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $49.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $47.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $40.46 | Below threshold | +16.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 29 industry peers | $60.23 | +20.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 44 industry peers | $39.63 | -21.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 27 industry peers | $70.01 | +39.6% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 39 analyst estimates | $50.14 | +0.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 40 industry peers | $39.87 | -20.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 33 industry peers | $28.69 | -42.8% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 47 industry peers | $44.09 | -12.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 29 industry peers | $60.22 | +20.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48.86 | -2.6% | 100% | 93 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $33 | $41 | $50 | $58 | $66 |
| Conservative (5%) | $34 | $43 | $51 | $60 | $68 |
| Base Case (-2.2%) | $32 | $40 | $48 | $56 | $64 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $32 | $39 | $47 | $55 | $63 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.11 | 10.03 | 7.79 | 13.71 | 2.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.53 | 12.05 | 10.65 | 14.74 | 1.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.53 | 7.43 | 6.86 | 8.11 | 0.51 |
| P/FCF | 11.38 | 10.13 | 8.49 | 15.93 | 3.36 |
| P/FFO | 5.59 | 5.43 | 4.32 | 7.07 | 1.09 |
| P/AFFO | 16.58 | 14.56 | 9.54 | 33.99 | 9.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.42 | 1.79 | 1.63 | 4.05 | 1.00 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.48 | 1.25 | 1.19 | 1.93 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates VZ's fair value at $48.86 vs the current price of $50.14, implying -2.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.86 (P10) to $59.88 (P90), with a median of $51.17.
VZ's current P/E of 12.3x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (29 peers in the group). This represents a -16.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
60 analysts cover VZ with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $49.36 (range: $44.00 — $58.00), implying -1.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (21), Hold (35), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VZ trades at the 4140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 230.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.