MODEL VERDICT
AT&T Inc. (T) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $28.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $27.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $28.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $27.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $23.99 | Below threshold | +13.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 29 industry peers | $45.10 | +61.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 44 industry peers | $26.74 | -4.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 27 industry peers | $26.75 | -4.5% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 39 analyst estimates | $23.34 | -16.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 40 industry peers | $22.70 | -18.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 33 industry peers | $14.22 | -49.2% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 47 industry peers | $28.26 | +0.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 29 industry peers | $45.09 | +61.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.07 | +7.4% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $16 | $22 | $28 | $35 | $41 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $23 | $29 | $36 | $42 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $17 | $23 | $30 | $37 | $43 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $24 | $31 | $38 | $45 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.88 | 8.52 | 6.80 | 15.61 | 4.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.94 | 12.87 | 8.81 | 96.43 | 35.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.78 | 6.73 | 6.01 | 21.64 | 5.69 |
| P/FCF | 8.92 | 8.86 | 5.68 | 14.12 | 3.00 |
| P/FFO | 6.18 | 5.15 | 3.67 | 14.71 | 3.91 |
| P/AFFO | 14.06 | 12.06 | 7.95 | 23.84 | 6.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.12 | 1.07 | 0.76 | 1.41 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.15 | 1.16 | 0.91 | 1.42 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates T's fair value at $30.07 vs the current price of $28.00, implying +7.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.98 (P10) to $40.51 (P90), with a median of $32.75.
T's current P/E of 9.2x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (29 peers in the group). This represents a -37.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.9x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
61 analysts cover T with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $29.12 (range: $20.00 — $33.00), implying +4.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (26), Hold (29), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 17.4% is 10.2 percentage points above the 5-year average (7.2%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$14. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that T's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (7.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5110.0% to approximately $14. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.