MODEL VERDICT
Antalpha Platform Holding Company (ANTA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 50 industry peers | $2.23 | -76.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 53 industry peers | $2.93 | -68.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 51 bank peers | $3.13 | -66.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $2.32 | -75.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 50 analyst estimates | $6.73 | -27.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.90 | -68.9% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 41× | 45× | 49× (Current) | 53× | 57× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates ANTA's fair value at $2.90 vs the current price of $9.33, implying -68.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.11 (P10) to $4.04 (P90), with a median of $3.04.
ANTA's current P/E of 49.1x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (50 peers in the group). This represents a +318.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for ANTA.
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ANTA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.