MODEL VERDICT
IREN Limited (IREN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $40.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $39.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $42.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $42.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $46.03 | Below threshold | +0.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $10.29 | -74.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $28.32 | -30.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $34.76 | -15.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $10.50 | -74.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $5.14 | -87.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.54 | -57.2% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 89× | 97× | 105× (Current) | 113× | 121× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $36 | $39 | $43 | $46 | $49 |
| Conservative (7%) | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 | $50 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $38 | $42 | $45 | $48 | $52 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $39 | $43 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 365.90 | 34.67 | 6.26 | 1388.00 | 681.58 |
| P/TBV | 1.75 | 1.09 | 0.17 | 4.64 | 1.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.75 | 1.09 | 0.17 | 4.64 | 1.98 |
| P/S Ratio | 28.85 | 5.23 | 0.87 | 116.12 | 49.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates IREN's fair value at $17.54 vs the current price of $40.95, implying -57.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.34 (P10) to $21.97 (P90), with a median of $17.05.
IREN's current P/E of 105.0x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +298.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover IREN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $74.20 (range: $39.00 — $105.00), implying +81.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IREN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.