MODEL VERDICT
Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $1.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $1.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $1.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $1.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $2.19 | Pending | -17.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $5.50 | +229.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $11.94 | +615.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $13.40 | +702.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $0.36 | -78.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $5.56 | +232.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $0.18 | -89.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.41 | +463.3% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $2 |
| Conservative (7%) | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 210.88 | 22.55 | 12.09 | 597.99 | 335.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.78 | 15.51 | 5.57 | 137.28 | 73.34 |
| P/FFO | 342.32 | 334.51 | 6.84 | 693.44 | 375.96 |
| P/TBV | 4.68 | 1.96 | 0.52 | 17.64 | 6.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.67 | 1.96 | 0.52 | 17.64 | 6.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.51 | 3.51 | 1.46 | 31.82 | 12.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates BTBT's fair value at $9.41 vs the current price of $1.67, implying +463.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.70 (P10) to $12.29 (P90), with a median of $8.69.
BTBT's current P/E of 8.3x compares to the industry median of 27.5x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -69.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover BTBT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $5.00 (range: $5.00 — $5.00), implying +199.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BTBT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.