MODEL VERDICT
Artivion, Inc. (AORT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $36.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $37.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $37.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $37.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $37.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $12.74 | -64.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $22.03 | -39.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $4.96 | -86.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $11.09 | -69.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $31.95 | -11.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $37.56 | +3.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $5.03 | -86.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.61 | -34.8% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 145× | 159× | 173× (Current) | 187× | 201× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 |
| Conservative (7%) | $32 | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $33 | $37 | $40 | $43 | $46 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $35 | $38 | $41 | $45 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 213.09 | 168.33 | 56.06 | 534.14 | 183.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.39 | 34.98 | 23.78 | 49.66 | 9.61 |
| P/FCF | 120.34 | 120.05 | 63.93 | 177.33 | 47.35 |
| P/FFO | 114.28 | 98.31 | 51.19 | 221.81 | 62.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.19 | 2.72 | 1.71 | 4.80 | 1.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.06 | 3.07 | 1.55 | 4.87 | 1.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates AORT's fair value at $23.61 vs the current price of $36.24, implying -34.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.18 (P10) to $28.88 (P90), with a median of $21.84.
AORT's current P/E of 172.6x compares to the industry median of 23.6x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +630.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover AORT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $52.00 (range: $50.00 — $55.00), implying +43.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AORT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.