MODEL VERDICT
AtriCure, Inc. (ATRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $29.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $29.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $29.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $29.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $28.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $1.27 | -95.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $24.11 | -16.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $27.38 | -5.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $49.59 | +70.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $44.82 | +54.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $24.15 | -16.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.04 | -34.4% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 16.91 | 10.49 | 8.46 | 47.46 | 15.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.60 | 4.44 | 3.11 | 6.62 | 1.24 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.46 | 5.29 | 3.08 | 11.67 | 3.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ATRC's fair value at $19.04 vs the current price of $29.02, implying -34.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.05 (P10) to $36.00 (P90), with a median of $31.49.
ATRC's current P/E of -120.9x compares to the industry median of 29.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -516.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover ATRC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $50.67 (range: $44.00 — $55.00), implying +74.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ATRC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.