Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$23.82
→
Intrinsic$58.71
+146%
$40.12$58.71$93.99
Market implies 2% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests TTD could have 146% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $24, the market prices in only 2% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $40 → Bull $94. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $72 | $78 | $84 | $91 |
| 10% | $51 | $55 | $59 | $63 |
| 12% | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
| 14% | $31 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($94) offers 295% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (2%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($40) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$994.64M
Year 2$1.24B
Year 3$1.55B
Year 4$1.94B
Year 5$2.43B
Terminal$35.73B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$795.71MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.