MODEL VERDICT
Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $18.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $16.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $15.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $15.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $15.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $20.17 | +11.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $17.25 | -4.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $10.39 | -42.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $21.27 | +17.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $29.51 | +62.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $26.51 | +46.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $10.39 | -42.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.03 | +32.5% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.32 | 4.65 | 3.97 | 12.03 | 3.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 91.42 | 7.90 | 3.52 | 481.18 | 191.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.15 | 4.48 | 3.13 | 25.47 | 8.13 |
| P/FCF | 7.04 | 4.59 | 4.34 | 16.76 | 5.44 |
| P/FFO | 8.67 | 4.13 | 3.06 | 31.66 | 11.30 |
| P/TBV | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.34 | 1.09 | 0.30 |
| P/AFFO | 15.54 | 4.94 | 3.37 | 43.65 | 17.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.34 | 1.09 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.11 | 1.26 | 0.50 | 1.49 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASC's fair value at $24.03 vs the current price of $18.14, implying +32.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.17 (P10) to $50.34 (P90), with a median of $25.45.
ASC's current P/E of 20.6x compares to the industry median of 11.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +74.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.3x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover ASC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.00 (range: $19.00 — $19.00), implying +4.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ASC trades at the 6400th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (6.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ASC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (16.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6260.0% to approximately $7. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.