Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$1,450.56
→
Intrinsic$1,060.36
-27%
$717.89$1,060.36$1,740.79
Market implies 33% growth for 5 years
ASML trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $1451, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (33%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $718 → Bull $1741. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $1338 | $1444 | $1557 | $1678 |
| 10% | $915 | $985 | $1060 | $1140 |
| 12% | $693 | $744 | $799 | $857 |
| 14% | $556 | $595 | $638 | $683 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1741) offers 20% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($718) implies 51% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 33% growth expectations vs 25% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 27% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$13.27B
Year 2$16.54B
Year 3$20.61B
Year 4$25.69B
Year 5$32.02B
Terminal$507.44B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate24.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$10.65BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.