MODEL VERDICT
Amtech Systems, Inc. (ASYS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 69 analyst estimates | $8.54 | -32.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 53 industry peers | $24.32 | +93.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 60 industry peers | $25.25 | +101.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 87 industry peers | $38.10 | +203.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 87 industry peers | $31.64 | +151.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 60 industry peers | $25.42 | +102.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.60 | +64.0% | 100% | 51 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.86 | 32.55 | 6.23 | 89.82 | 42.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.47 | 9.05 | 3.84 | 33.51 | 15.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.07 | 12.83 | 6.60 | 24.03 | 7.39 |
| P/FCF | 22.67 | 25.91 | 15.60 | 26.49 | 6.13 |
| P/FFO | 26.11 | 23.92 | 5.65 | 48.75 | 21.64 |
| P/TBV | 1.66 | 1.28 | 1.08 | 3.49 | 0.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.43 | 1.11 | 0.67 | 3.36 | 0.90 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.26 | 1.20 | 0.52 | 2.26 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASYS's fair value at $20.60 vs the current price of $12.56, implying +64.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.52 (P10) to $21.24 (P90), with a median of $17.30.
ASYS's current P/E of -5.9x compares to the industry median of 45.7x (46 peers in the group). This represents a -113.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.9x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover ASYS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ASYS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.