MODEL VERDICT
Avanos Medical, Inc. (AVNS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $24.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $24.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $24.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $24.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $14.71 | -40.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $20.55 | -16.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $21.10 | -14.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $45.93 | +86.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $46.45 | +88.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $23.34 | -5.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.32 | -17.6% | 100% | 75 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 122.91 | 164.32 | 38.94 | 165.47 | 72.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.08 | 15.62 | 9.30 | 54.74 | 16.99 |
| P/FCF | 27.16 | 17.88 | 8.83 | 71.59 | 25.62 |
| P/FFO | 63.81 | 37.78 | 13.97 | 139.69 | 66.78 |
| P/TBV | 4.65 | 5.14 | 1.96 | 7.40 | 1.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 0.99 | 0.67 | 1.75 | 0.37 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.84 | 1.87 | 0.74 | 3.07 | 0.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVNS's fair value at $20.32 vs the current price of $24.66, implying -17.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.99 (P10) to $26.91 (P90), with a median of $22.11.
AVNS's current P/E of -16.9x compares to the industry median of 27.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -161.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover AVNS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $23.00 (range: $20.00 — $26.00), implying -6.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AVNS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.