Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$144.11
→
Intrinsic$793.84
+451%
$523.01$793.84$1,332.65
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests BABA could have 451% upside at 14% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $144, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 14%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $523 → Bull $1333. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 10% | 12% | 14% | 16% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $992 | $1081 | $1177 | $1279 |
| 10% | $671 | $730 | $794 | $862 |
| 12% | $502 | $545 | $592 | $642 |
| 14% | $397 | $431 | $467 | $506 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1333) offers 825% upside at 17% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (14%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($523) with 11% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$89.37B
Year 2$102.19B
Year 3$116.85B
Year 4$133.61B
Year 5$152.78B
Terminal$2.42T
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate14.3%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$78.16BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.