MODEL VERDICT
Braskem S.A. (BAK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $290.54 | +7330.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $480.01 | +12176.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $290.07 | +7318.7% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 6.13 | 4.68 | 1.82 | 13.34 | 5.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.93 | 3.84 | 1.22 | 14.25 | 5.27 |
| P/FCF | 1.03 | 0.95 | 0.74 | 1.49 | 0.32 |
| P/FFO | 2.79 | 1.64 | 0.46 | 5.60 | 2.51 |
| P/TBV | 9.47 | 3.07 | 1.19 | 20.55 | 9.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.14 | 1.36 | 0.60 | 6.01 | 2.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates BAK's fair value at $290.07 vs the current price of $3.91, implying +7318.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $290.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.08 (P10) to $91.51 (P90), with a median of $56.97.
BAK's current P/E of -0.7x compares to the industry median of 32.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -102.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover BAK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1.50 (range: $1.50 — $1.50), implying -61.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BAK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.