MODEL VERDICT
Westlake Corporation (WLK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $114.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $110.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $112.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $115.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $118.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $47.68 | -58.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $168.36 | +46.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $97.28 | -15.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $81.80 | -28.9% | 100% | 50 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.34 | 23.15 | 5.91 | 37.83 | 13.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.85 | 16.57 | 5.24 | 27.67 | 9.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.98 | 8.75 | 3.99 | 11.07 | 3.08 |
| P/FCF | 17.72 | 13.68 | 5.78 | 48.41 | 15.67 |
| P/FFO | 7.65 | 8.30 | 4.00 | 11.42 | 2.92 |
| P/TBV | 2.00 | 1.96 | 1.03 | 2.54 | 0.50 |
| P/AFFO | 18.33 | 19.50 | 5.69 | 33.21 | 10.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.03 | 1.67 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.13 | 1.11 | 0.84 | 1.43 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates WLK's fair value at $81.80 vs the current price of $114.99, implying -28.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $81.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $58.22 (P10) to $84.07 (P90), with a median of $70.99.
WLK's current P/E of -9.8x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -150.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
32 analysts cover WLK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $101.88 (range: $80.00 — $145.00), implying -11.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (18), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WLK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.