MODEL VERDICT
Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $22.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $24.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $24.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $22.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $23.29 | Pending | -0.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $62.60 | +175.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $72.57 | +218.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $105.73 | +364.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $69.31 | +204.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $81.70 | +259.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $54.03 | +137.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $35.97 | +58.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $45.84 | +101.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $105.73 | +364.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $72.05 | +216.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $60.70 | +166.7% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $15 | $15 | $23 | $30 | $38 |
| Conservative (7%) | $15 | $15 | $23 | $31 | $38 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $16 | $16 | $24 | $32 | $40 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $16 | $16 | $25 | $33 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.27 | 11.00 | 8.98 | 14.30 | 1.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.19 | 10.51 | 7.95 | 12.75 | 1.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.85 | 8.30 | 5.54 | 9.73 | 1.70 |
| P/FCF | 10.46 | 12.03 | 4.66 | 15.59 | 4.57 |
| P/FFO | 9.49 | 8.62 | 4.64 | 18.20 | 4.41 |
| P/AFFO | 11.02 | 10.84 | 7.43 | 14.17 | 2.53 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.24 | 1.30 | 0.43 | 2.42 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BBWI's fair value at $60.70 vs the current price of $22.76, implying +166.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $60.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.21 (P10) to $71.79 (P90), with a median of $61.19.
BBWI's current P/E of 6.3x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -78.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover BBWI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $17.00 — $26.00), implying -7.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BBWI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (18.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 24860.0% to approximately $79. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.