Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$22.76
→
Intrinsic$34.84
+53%
$17.72$34.84$67.39
Market implies 2% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests BBWI could have 53% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $23, the market prices in only 2% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $18 → Bull $67. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $45 | $51 | $57 | $64 |
| 10% | $26 | $31 | $35 | $39 |
| 12% | $16 | $19 | $23 | $26 |
| 14% | $10 | $12 | $15 | $17 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($67) offers 196% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- 35% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (2%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($18) implies 22% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$712.80M
Year 2$769.82M
Year 3$831.41M
Year 4$897.92M
Year 5$969.76M
Terminal$14.27B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$660.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.