MODEL VERDICT
Brunswick Corporation (BC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $79.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $79.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $81.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $77.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $77.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $103.54 | +30.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $78.28 | -1.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $60.55 | -23.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $41.31 | -48.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $54.62 | -31.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $75.92 | -4.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $109.20 | +37.5% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.46 | 16.22 | 8.01 | 33.51 | 9.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.00 | 12.14 | 7.84 | 32.07 | 8.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.84 | 9.55 | 6.33 | 27.80 | 7.18 |
| P/FCF | 18.93 | 16.51 | 9.87 | 27.40 | 7.12 |
| P/FFO | 106.16 | 10.41 | 5.97 | 663.67 | 245.98 |
| P/TBV | 131.87 | 62.28 | 11.25 | 551.83 | 207.84 |
| P/AFFO | 15.60 | 16.88 | 10.43 | 17.68 | 2.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.33 | 3.27 | 2.30 | 4.13 | 0.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.09 | 1.07 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates BC's fair value at $109.20 vs the current price of $79.42, implying +37.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $109.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.55 (P10) to $78.55 (P90), with a median of $63.49.
BC's current P/E of -38.2x compares to the industry median of 31.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -220.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.5x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover BC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $88.78 (range: $74.00 — $115.00), implying +11.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.