MODEL VERDICT
MarineMax, Inc. (HZO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $29.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $29.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $30.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $28.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $27.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $10.36 | -65.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $8.11 | -72.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $24.03 | -19.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $26.32 | -11.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $57.99 | +95.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $8.12 | -72.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.08 | -29.0% | 100% | 65 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.80 | 9.55 | 3.53 | 17.55 | 4.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.74 | 8.69 | 2.77 | 47.33 | 15.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.41 | 7.30 | 2.64 | 10.56 | 2.70 |
| P/FCF | 22.46 | 21.22 | 2.66 | 44.74 | 22.31 |
| P/FFO | 10.30 | 8.03 | 3.22 | 30.21 | 8.99 |
| P/TBV | 2.01 | 1.87 | 1.25 | 3.43 | 0.82 |
| P/AFFO | 14.30 | 10.33 | 4.40 | 38.86 | 12.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 0.95 | 0.56 | 2.27 | 0.61 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.65 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates HZO's fair value at $21.08 vs the current price of $29.68, implying -29.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.87 (P10) to $14.96 (P90), with a median of $10.71.
HZO's current P/E of -20.8x compares to the industry median of 13.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -254.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover HZO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.67 (range: $29.00 — $35.00), implying +10.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HZO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.