MODEL VERDICT
BCB Bancorp, Inc. (BCBP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $22.68 | +171.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $26.48 | +217.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $10.91 | +30.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.17 | +117.6% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.29 | 8.87 | 6.97 | 11.96 | 2.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.04 | 9.65 | 5.83 | 15.03 | 3.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.00 | 9.68 | 5.76 | 14.89 | 3.96 |
| P/FCF | 5.92 | 6.47 | 1.38 | 10.41 | 3.28 |
| P/FFO | 8.67 | 8.24 | 6.75 | 10.85 | 1.77 |
| P/TBV | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 1.07 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 9.41 | 9.25 | 6.83 | 12.33 | 2.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.79 | 0.77 | 0.46 | 1.07 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.55 | 1.57 | 0.83 | 2.35 | 0.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates BCBP's fair value at $18.17 vs the current price of $8.35, implying +117.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.18 (P10) to $20.79 (P90), with a median of $18.48.
BCBP's current P/E of -9.9x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -167.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover BCBP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $13.50 (range: $13.00 — $14.00), implying +61.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BCBP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.