Intrinsic Value Overview
Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC)
Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) intrinsic value summary: current price $5.73, fair value $14.85, +157% implied move via DCF and relative valuation.
Method Breakdown
Base blend: 60% DCF + 40% RelativeCompany Quality
Below average — notable weaknesses in key areas
Wall St Estimates
Shareholder Returns
Total Return vs S&P 500
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability & Financial HealthProfitability
Returns & MarginsSolvency
Financial HealthGrowth & Margins
Quarterly Trends · 5-Year Window · Hover for detailPiotroski F-Score
Fundamental QualityMonte Carlo Distribution & Risk
10,000 SimulationsEarnings Surprise History
Last 12 Quarters| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25Latest | $-1.09 | $-0.85 | +22.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.95 | $-1.14 | -20.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.86 | $-0.88 | -2.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.85 | $-0.80 | +5.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.78 | $-0.74 | +5.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-1.10 | $-0.77 | +30.0% | ||
| Q2'24 | $-1.26 | $-0.62 | +50.8% | ||
| Q1'24 | $-1.23 | $-1.16 | +5.7% |
Peer Valuation Comparison
Biotechnology CohortAnnual Returns vs SPY
Total Return (Price + Dividends)| Year | Stock Return | SPY Return | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026YTD | -14.2% | +0.4% | -14.6% |
| 2025Worst | -50.7% | +16.6% | -67.3% |
| 2024 | -24.1% | +24.0% | -48.1% |
| 2023 | -39.7% | +24.8% | -64.5% |
| 2022 | -50.3% | -19.9% | -30.3% |
| 2021Best | +217.0% | +28.8% | +188.2% |
| 2020 | +82.8% | +15.1% | +67.7% |
| 2019 | -21.4% | +28.7% | -50.1% |
Frequently Asked Questions
ValuationIs BCYC a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our multi-model analysis of Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) at $5.73: Relative valuation verdict: Significantly Undervalued vs industry peers. Fundamental quality score: 36/100 (below average). Wall Street consensus: Buy from 21 analysts. This is a quantitative summary combining DCF intrinsic value, peer-based relative valuation, quality scoring, and analyst consensus — not a buy/sell recommendation. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.
ValuationWhat is Bicycle Therapeutics plc's fair value?
Bicycle Therapeutics plc has multiple fair value estimates from different frameworks: Relative fair value: $14.85 (Significantly Undervalued, +156.9% vs current price). Analyst consensus target: $11.00 (+92.0% upside, 21 analysts). We recommend comparing all three lenses — when DCF, relative, and analyst targets converge, the signal is stronger. When they diverge, investigate what assumptions differ.
QualityIs BCYC financially healthy?
Bicycle Therapeutics plc's financial health as measured by our composite scoring: Overall quality score: 36/100. Piotroski F-Score: 5/9 (moderate). Altman Z-Score: -0.3 (distress zone — elevated risk). Cash conversion (OCF/NI): 0.97x (earnings exceed cash generation). The quality score blends profitability (ROIC, ROE, margins), solvency (leverage, coverage, Z-Score), and growth trajectory into a single 0–100 framework updated end-of-day.
PerformanceHow has BCYC performed compared to the S&P 500?
Bicycle Therapeutics plc's performance profile: 1-year total return: -47.8%. 1-year alpha vs S&P 500: -63.2% (underperforming the benchmark). 5-year CAGR: -25.9%. Maximum drawdown (1Y): -52.3%. Relative Strength rating: 23/99 (weak momentum). Beta: 1.17 (similar volatility to the market). Total returns include reinvested dividends. Alpha is calculated against the S&P 500 Total Return Index over matching periods.
IncomeDoes BCYC pay dividends?
Bicycle Therapeutics plc does not currently pay a dividend or conduct significant share buybacks. The company is retaining capital for reinvestment.
EstimatesWhat do Wall Street analysts say about BCYC?
Wall Street's outlook on Bicycle Therapeutics plc: Consensus rating: Buy from 21 covering analysts. Consensus price target: $11.00 (range: $10.00 to $12.00). Implied upside from current price: +92.0%. Earnings beat rate: 58%. Analyst estimates are blended into our proprietary model with weight based on coverage depth and historical accuracy. We track estimate revisions, beat rates, and grade changes daily.
RiskWhat are the key risks of investing in BCYC?
Key risks identified for Bicycle Therapeutics plc: Drawdown risk: The stock experienced a -52.3% max drawdown in the past year. Solvency risk: Altman Z-Score (-0.3) is in the distress zone, indicating elevated bankruptcy risk. Note: This model does not capture regulatory changes, management decisions, competitive disruption, or geopolitical events. Macro and qualitative risks remain material and should be assessed independently.
LegalDoes this dashboard provide investment advice?
No. This overview dashboard aggregates data from our DCF intrinsic value model, relative peer multiples model, proprietary estimates engine, and third-party analyst consensus feeds. It is strictly for educational and informational purposes. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, quality scores, and signals are automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as investment recommendations. Consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.