MODEL VERDICT
Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $3.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $3.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $2.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $2.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.66 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $9.69 | +220.9% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $4.02 | +33.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $7.79 | +157.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $9.59 | +217.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.08 | +134.3% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 76.06 | 51.37 | 6.73 | 194.78 | 85.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.29 | 32.83 | 10.05 | 53.44 | 18.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.96 | 13.35 | 6.55 | 18.14 | 3.76 |
| P/FCF | 37.58 | 36.39 | 11.86 | 77.44 | 23.27 |
| P/FFO | 8.07 | 7.98 | 4.16 | 12.14 | 4.29 |
| P/TBV | 1.05 | 0.93 | 0.65 | 1.78 | 0.43 |
| P/AFFO | 36.17 | 41.83 | 6.15 | 60.53 | 27.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.01 | 0.92 | 0.63 | 1.65 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.89 | 2.09 | 1.05 | 4.79 | 1.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates BDN's fair value at $7.08 vs the current price of $3.02, implying +134.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.68 (P10) to $6.31 (P90), with a median of $4.49.
BDN's current P/E of -2.9x compares to the industry median of 25.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -111.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 76.1x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover BDN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $3.50 (range: $3.00 — $4.00), implying +15.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (13), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BDN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.