MODEL VERDICT
Paramount Group, Inc. (PGRE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $6.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $6.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $6.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $6.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $6.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $6.43 | -2.6% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $5.52 | -16.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $1.90 | -71.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $17.06 | +158.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $11.32 | +71.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $11.32 | +71.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.69 | -13.8% | 100% | 74 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 41.27 | 41.40 | 36.35 | 47.49 | 4.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.40 | 11.28 | 7.42 | 12.77 | 1.95 |
| P/FCF | 8.84 | 8.50 | 4.05 | 13.79 | 3.14 |
| P/FFO | 5.86 | 5.73 | 3.41 | 8.60 | 1.73 |
| P/TBV | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 12.69 | 12.84 | 6.40 | 18.70 | 6.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 0.70 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.60 | 2.51 | 1.42 | 4.19 | 1.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates PGRE's fair value at $5.69 vs the current price of $6.60, implying -13.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.30 (P10) to $6.80 (P90), with a median of $6.04.
PGRE's current P/E of -31.4x compares to the industry median of 30.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -203.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover PGRE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $12.00 — $12.00), implying +81.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PGRE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.