MODEL VERDICT
Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. (PDM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $8.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $8.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $7.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $7.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $8.87 | +6.5% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $6.10 | -26.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $4.48 | -46.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $10.52 | +26.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $8.71 | +4.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $11.49 | +37.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.23 | -13.2% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.11 | 8.77 | 7.71 | 16.85 | 5.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 51.20 | 47.54 | 14.86 | 82.87 | 22.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.75 | 10.80 | 9.48 | 14.45 | 1.93 |
| P/FCF | 20.03 | 19.06 | 12.07 | 26.74 | 6.07 |
| P/FFO | 7.21 | 7.23 | 3.05 | 11.48 | 3.27 |
| P/TBV | 1.01 | 0.78 | 0.53 | 1.71 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 15.97 | 11.81 | 4.53 | 29.67 | 11.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.51 | 1.54 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.96 | 2.01 | 1.52 | 5.26 | 1.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates PDM's fair value at $7.23 vs the current price of $8.33, implying -13.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.36 (P10) to $8.95 (P90), with a median of $7.59.
PDM's current P/E of -12.4x compares to the industry median of 25.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -148.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.1x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover PDM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying +20.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PDM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.