MODEL VERDICT
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $70.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $75.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $72.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $77.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $80.36 | Below threshold | -3.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $61.50 | -13.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $101.08 | +42.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $61.35 | -13.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $26.71 | -62.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $64.32 | -9.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $84.30 | +19.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91.36 | +28.9% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $50 | $62 | $73 | $84 | $95 |
| Conservative (5%) | $52 | $64 | $75 | $87 | $98 |
| Base Case (-13.6%) | $43 | $52 | $62 | $71 | $81 |
| Bull Case (-18%) | $40 | $49 | $58 | $67 | $76 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.70 | 7.82 | 2.29 | 13.25 | 3.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.78 | 13.34 | 3.61 | 23.47 | 6.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.27 | 7.20 | 3.23 | 14.83 | 3.65 |
| P/FCF | 2.02 | 1.66 | 0.83 | 4.16 | 1.13 |
| P/FFO | 5.67 | 5.60 | 1.97 | 8.49 | 2.47 |
| P/TBV | 8.64 | 2.38 | 0.76 | 40.28 | 14.25 |
| P/AFFO | 7.23 | 7.03 | 3.96 | 11.63 | 2.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.64 | 1.60 | 0.56 | 2.83 | 0.91 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.82 | 0.86 | 0.32 | 1.34 | 0.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BFH's fair value at $91.36 vs the current price of $70.86, implying +28.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $58.14 (P10) to $176.20 (P90), with a median of $98.35.
BFH's current P/E of 12.9x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +15.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
37 analysts cover BFH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $79.17 (range: $62.00 — $92.00), implying +11.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (19), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BFH trades at the 5850th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BFH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3290.0% to approximately $94. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.