MODEL VERDICT
B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $6.04 | +9.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $7.78 | +40.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $5.17 | -6.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $20.85 | +276.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $7.78 | +40.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.58 | +109.1% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.68 | 15.32 | 13.59 | 30.13 | 9.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.17 | 22.55 | 14.72 | 33.92 | 7.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.74 | 15.53 | 11.23 | 23.55 | 4.49 |
| P/FCF | 56.98 | 6.14 | 3.51 | 281.07 | 110.68 |
| P/FFO | 14.63 | 9.13 | 7.96 | 35.15 | 11.59 |
| P/AFFO | 12.54 | 11.76 | 9.90 | 16.75 | 2.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.34 | 1.04 | 0.76 | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.19 | 0.98 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates BGS's fair value at $11.58 vs the current price of $5.54, implying +109.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.01 (P10) to $19.95 (P90), with a median of $8.90.
BGS's current P/E of -10.3x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -175.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.7x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover BGS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.50 (range: $5.00 — $6.00), implying -0.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (11), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BGS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.