MODEL VERDICT
Blackbaud, Inc. (BLKB) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $48.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $49.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $49.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $47.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $62.21 | Pending | -22.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $105.73 | +117.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $104.20 | +114.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $62.41 | +28.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $103.99 | +114.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $92.33 | +90.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $91.41 | +88.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $286.21 | +489.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $73.51 | +51.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $78.11 | +60.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $69.22 | +42.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $104.72 | +115.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $238.64 | +391.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (29%) | $49 | $55 | $61 | $67 | $73 |
| Conservative (46%) | $56 | $62 | $69 | $76 | $83 |
| Base Case (71.4%) | $65 | $73 | $81 | $89 | $97 |
| Bull Case (97%) | $75 | $84 | $93 | $102 | $112 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 784.11 | 359.75 | 26.72 | 2557.52 | 1016.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 80.33 | 77.39 | 17.17 | 147.55 | 51.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 51.73 | 48.23 | 12.38 | 105.37 | 31.27 |
| P/FCF | 24.78 | 23.59 | 11.91 | 36.83 | 9.89 |
| P/FFO | 65.21 | 58.36 | 15.26 | 150.55 | 46.08 |
| P/AFFO | 114.79 | 72.37 | 15.87 | 385.54 | 134.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.40 | 6.58 | 4.08 | 36.08 | 12.60 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.50 | 3.23 | 2.72 | 4.27 | 0.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BLKB's fair value at $238.64 vs the current price of $48.54, implying +391.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $238.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $109.88 (P10) to $462.25 (P90), with a median of $243.07.
BLKB's current P/E of 20.5x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -22.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 784.1x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
24 analysts cover BLKB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $56.25 (range: $50.00 — $60.00), implying +15.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BLKB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.