Banco Macro S.A. (BMA)
Valuation Overview•Is Banco Macro S.A. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Moderate quality score of 70/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though growth presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
BMA demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($2.1T) and minimal debt risk.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with highly explosive earnings growth (84.1% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 14.8%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0T | -21.1% | +2.8% | +54.1% | +44.0% | |
| EBITDA | $329.0B | — | +15.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $204.1B | +3.6% | +6.9% | — | +17.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3193.40 | +3.8% | +84.1% | +34.4% | +16.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $575.3B | -99.8% | -89.9% | -65.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 83.3% | 92.8% | 95.1% | 126.7% |
| Operating Margin | 14.8% | 18.4% | 16.1% | 16.2% |
| Net Margin | 12.7% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 18.6% |
| FCF Margin | 49.0% | 5.1% | 16.5% | 50.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $1.59 | $2.17 | +36.5% | ||
| Q2'26 | $1.42 | $1.59 | +12.0% | ||
| Q2'26 | $1.38 | $1.24 | -10.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.38 | $1.98 | +43.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.38 | $1.98 | +43.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.67 | $-0.39 | -158.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.99 | $1.95 | -2.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.66 | $0.65 | -60.8% |
Total return is +59.2% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +43.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -15.4% | -27.8% | — |
| 1Y | +59.2% | +43.4% | +8.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +57.3% | +36.6% | +52.3% |
| 5YCAGR | +39.0% | +27.9% | +89.8% |
| 10YCAGR | +2.1% | -11.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) valuation, health, and returns.
Banco Macro S.A. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -30.6% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $52.08)
Banco Macro S.A. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $52.08 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $66981.72 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $88.00 (implying +22.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Banco Macro S.A. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 70/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.9%.
Banco Macro S.A. pays a 4.5% dividend yield, covered by a 93% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Banco Macro S.A.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -21.1% 1Y revenue growth and +3.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +2.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 14 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +22.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Banco Macro S.A. include: -37.3% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.04x market volatility), stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.04x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.