MODEL VERDICT
BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $133.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $132.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $138.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $134.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $134.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $109.51 | -18.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $120.00 | -10.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $117.95 | -11.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $98.73 | -26.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $109.51 | -18.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $117.57 | -11.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $106.45 | -20.3% | 100% | 97 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $100 | $116 | $133 | $149 | $166 |
| Conservative (5%) | $103 | $120 | $137 | $154 | $171 |
| Base Case (3.0%) | $101 | $117 | $134 | $151 | $168 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $102 | $119 | $135 | $152 | $169 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.93 | 11.79 | 10.68 | 13.51 | 1.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.62 | 19.26 | 8.66 | 21.48 | 4.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.47 | 16.56 | 7.67 | 18.66 | 4.04 |
| P/FCF | 30.36 | 4.74 | 1.36 | 84.96 | 47.32 |
| P/FFO | 9.96 | 10.04 | 8.78 | 11.11 | 0.89 |
| P/TBV | 1.66 | 1.65 | 1.19 | 2.12 | 0.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.20 | 1.22 | 0.90 | 1.49 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.75 | 2.71 | 1.85 | 3.96 | 0.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BOKF's fair value at $106.45 vs the current price of $133.51, implying -20.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $106.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $104.03 (P10) to $114.29 (P90), with a median of $109.08.
BOKF's current P/E of 16.4x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +21.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.9x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
21 analysts cover BOKF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $131.57 (range: $115.00 — $140.00), implying -1.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BOKF trades at the 7820th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BOKF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 740.0% to approximately $143. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.