MODEL VERDICT
Bank7 Corp. (BSVN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $43.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $43.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $43.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $43.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $42.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $66.27 | +52.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $35.79 | -17.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $42.92 | -1.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $37.73 | -13.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $66.18 | +52.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $50.84 | +16.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.02 | +15.0% | 100% | 86 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $29 | $38 | $48 | $58 | $67 |
| Conservative (11%) | $30 | $40 | $50 | $60 | $70 |
| Base Case (17.0%) | $32 | $42 | $53 | $63 | $74 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $33 | $44 | $55 | $66 | $77 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.72 | 9.02 | 6.93 | 23.41 | 5.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.30 | 2.80 | 0.34 | 3.31 | 1.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.23 | 2.69 | 0.33 | 3.26 | 1.13 |
| P/FCF | 7.58 | 7.08 | 5.37 | 11.96 | 2.36 |
| P/FFO | 10.12 | 8.64 | 6.54 | 21.26 | 5.00 |
| P/TBV | 1.73 | 1.76 | 1.26 | 2.16 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 12.18 | 9.47 | 6.69 | 32.34 | 8.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.65 | 1.64 | 1.24 | 2.07 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.91 | 2.88 | 1.94 | 3.63 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BSVN's fair value at $50.02 vs the current price of $43.49, implying +15.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.98 (P10) to $54.60 (P90), with a median of $49.25.
BSVN's current P/E of 9.7x compares to the industry median of 14.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -34.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover BSVN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $57.00 (range: $57.00 — $57.00), implying +31.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BSVN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (30.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 670.0% to approximately $46. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.