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Bentley Systems, Incorporated (BSY)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$40.14
→
Intrinsic$32.86
-18%
$21.09$32.86$55.21
Market implies 25% growth for 5 years
BSY trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $40, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (25%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $21 → Bull $55. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $41 | $45 | $49 | $53 |
| 10% | $28 | $30 | $33 | $36 |
| 12% | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| 14% | $15 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($55) offers 38% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($21) implies 47% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 25% growth expectations vs 20% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 18% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$505.50M
Year 2$606.59M
Year 3$727.91M
Year 4$873.50M
Year 5$1.05B
Terminal$15.42B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$421.25MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.