MODEL VERDICT
Bentley Systems, Incorporated (BSY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $36.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $33.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $34.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $34.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $40.13 | Below threshold | -14.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $27.65 | -24.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $24.98 | -31.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $22.07 | -39.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $30.50 | -16.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $23.71 | -35.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $24.77 | -32.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $20.39 | -44.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $12.00 | -67.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $14.91 | -59.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $23.35 | -36.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $30.54 | -16.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.30 | +4.8% | 100% | 77 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $33 | $36 | $39 | $41 | $44 |
| Conservative (10%) | $35 | $37 | $40 | $43 | $46 |
| Base Case (15.1%) | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $38 | $41 | $44 | $47 | $50 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 81.54 | 67.30 | 44.90 | 161.10 | 42.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 83.99 | 70.35 | 53.33 | 152.38 | 39.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 63.65 | 57.06 | 38.26 | 117.28 | 28.34 |
| P/FCF | 43.34 | 46.12 | 24.44 | 56.21 | 11.24 |
| P/FFO | 61.32 | 50.92 | 36.98 | 110.07 | 27.01 |
| P/AFFO | 67.34 | 54.23 | 39.06 | 126.08 | 32.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 23.22 | 20.50 | 10.69 | 37.16 | 10.83 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.69 | 12.82 | 8.46 | 15.76 | 2.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BSY's fair value at $38.30 vs the current price of $36.55, implying +4.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.47 (P10) to $47.49 (P90), with a median of $39.84.
BSY's current P/E of 43.0x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +65.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 81.5x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover BSY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $48.00 (range: $40.00 — $55.00), implying +31.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BSY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (17.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7420.0% to approximately $64. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.