Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$36.55
→
Intrinsic$42.23
+16%
$27.67$42.23$69.89
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
BSY shows 16% potential upside using 20% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $37, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $28 → Bull $70. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $52 | $57 | $62 | $67 |
| 10% | $36 | $39 | $42 | $46 |
| 12% | $27 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| 14% | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($70) offers 91% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- 13% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (17%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($28) implies 24% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$624.25M
Year 2$749.10M
Year 3$898.92M
Year 4$1.08B
Year 5$1.29B
Terminal$19.05B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$520.21MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.