MODEL VERDICT
Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V. (BWMX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $16.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $16.15 | Pending | +17.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $52.40 | +216.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $815.17 | +4819.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $558.54 | +3270.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $995.76 | +5909.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $666.72 | +3923.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $924.32 | +5478.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 14 industry peers | $89.10 | +437.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $503.15 | +2936.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $524.77 | +3067.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $558.53 | +3270.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $1035.13 | +6147.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $503.31 | +2937.5% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $216 | $255 | $294 | $333 | $372 |
| Conservative (5%) | $220 | $260 | $300 | $340 | $380 |
| Base Case (6.8%) | $224 | $265 | $306 | $346 | $387 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $229 | $271 | $312 | $354 | $396 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.08 | 0.54 | 0.30 | 3.93 | 1.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 1.86 | 1.87 | 0.43 | 3.03 | 1.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.51 | 1.50 | 0.42 | 2.55 | 0.97 |
| P/FCF | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.97 | 0.35 |
| P/FFO | 0.91 | 0.40 | 0.19 | 3.43 | 1.24 |
| P/AFFO | 0.54 | 0.47 | 0.22 | 1.07 | 0.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.70 | 0.51 | 0.20 | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Div Yield | 1.90 | 1.52 | 0.71 | 4.30 | 1.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BWMX's fair value at $503.31 vs the current price of $16.57, implying +2937.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $503.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $317.93 (P10) to $501.36 (P90), with a median of $407.15.
BWMX's current P/E of 15.0x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -48.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover BWMX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.00 (range: $20.00 — $20.00), implying +20.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BWMX trades at the 2500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BWMX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (19.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 23250.0% to approximately $55. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.