MODEL VERDICT
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $216.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $223.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $235.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $238.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $229.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $94.80 | -56.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $69.45 | -67.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $83.34 | -61.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $75.88 | -64.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $56.54 | -73.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $71.26 | -67.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $33.99 | -84.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $48.52 | -77.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $58.44 | -73.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $83.33 | -61.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $75.88 | -64.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $109.69 | -49.3% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 50× | 55× | 60× (Current) | 65× | 70× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $183 | $201 | $220 | $238 | $256 |
| Conservative (5%) | $188 | $207 | $226 | $245 | $264 |
| Base Case (4.3%) | $187 | $206 | $225 | $243 | $262 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $190 | $209 | $228 | $247 | $266 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.89 | 24.35 | 14.78 | 48.14 | 11.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.64 | 19.15 | 13.17 | 39.31 | 8.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.64 | 17.26 | 13.69 | 40.21 | 9.23 |
| P/FCF | 60.57 | 57.06 | 33.19 | 114.81 | 28.83 |
| P/FFO | 21.61 | 19.45 | 12.07 | 36.16 | 8.04 |
| P/TBV | 26.63 | 23.80 | 15.64 | 40.84 | 11.25 |
| P/AFFO | 55.01 | 48.08 | 40.72 | 70.82 | 11.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.74 | 9.34 | 7.10 | 14.72 | 2.98 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.13 | 2.82 | 2.13 | 4.96 | 0.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BWXT's fair value at $109.69 vs the current price of $216.31, implying -49.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $109.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $77.63 (P10) to $100.13 (P90), with a median of $88.57.
BWXT's current P/E of 60.3x compares to the industry median of 23.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +159.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover BWXT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $210.00 (range: $195.00 — $225.00), implying -2.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BWXT trades at the 6760th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BWXT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.1σ, meaning margins are 2.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2550.0% to approximately $161. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.